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Risk Negative Tone Reverberates In Asia

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(Z2) Bearish Price Action

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Remains Vulnerable

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(Z2) Bear Trend Accelerates

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Rupiah Holds Firm, Indonesia Prepares For Leaner Finances In 2023

IDR

Spot USD/IDR trades -15 figs at IDR14,863, which sees bears set their sights on the 50-DMA/Jul 29 low at IDR14,843/14,833. Bulls need a clearance of Aug 4 high of IDR14,939 before targeting Jul 22 high of IDR15,038.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen +25 figs at IDR14,865 after falling below its 50-DMA on Monday. Topside focus falls on that moving average (IDR14,867), followed by Aug 5 high of IDR14,990. Bears look for losses past Jun 27 low of IDR14,788.
  • Palm oil futures have extended yesterday's gains this morning. The contract for October delivery trades +MYR111/MT at MYR4,182/MT. Note that Indonesia lowered the minimum taxable export price of crude palm oil to $680/ton from $750/ton, which takes effect today.
  • FinMin Indrawati noted that Indonesia is preparing for tighter financial conditions next year as the commodity windfall is expected to ease. Despite the expected decline in revenue, Indonesia intends to keep using budgetary means as a "shock absorber" (via subsidy schemes) and keep the budget deficit below 3% of its GDP.
  • Bank Indonesia's consumer confidence gauge fell to 123.2 in July from 128.2 recorded in June. The corresponding data signal from Danareksa Research is expected to hit the wires in the coming days.
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Spot USD/IDR trades -15 figs at IDR14,863, which sees bears set their sights on the 50-DMA/Jul 29 low at IDR14,843/14,833. Bulls need a clearance of Aug 4 high of IDR14,939 before targeting Jul 22 high of IDR15,038.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen +25 figs at IDR14,865 after falling below its 50-DMA on Monday. Topside focus falls on that moving average (IDR14,867), followed by Aug 5 high of IDR14,990. Bears look for losses past Jun 27 low of IDR14,788.
  • Palm oil futures have extended yesterday's gains this morning. The contract for October delivery trades +MYR111/MT at MYR4,182/MT. Note that Indonesia lowered the minimum taxable export price of crude palm oil to $680/ton from $750/ton, which takes effect today.
  • FinMin Indrawati noted that Indonesia is preparing for tighter financial conditions next year as the commodity windfall is expected to ease. Despite the expected decline in revenue, Indonesia intends to keep using budgetary means as a "shock absorber" (via subsidy schemes) and keep the budget deficit below 3% of its GDP.
  • Bank Indonesia's consumer confidence gauge fell to 123.2 in July from 128.2 recorded in June. The corresponding data signal from Danareksa Research is expected to hit the wires in the coming days.