Rupiah Lacks Firm Momentum, Jokowi Continues European Trip

Spot USD/IDR has edged higher and last deals +10 figs at IDR14,847. A short-term bullish flag pattern seems to be materialising, but further technical evidence is needed to substantiate the claim that topside momentum is picking up after a brief pause. A break above Jun 22 high of IDR14,873 would confirm that the uptrend is intact, bringing Sep 25, 2020/Sep 11, 2020 highs of IDR14,919/14,950 into play. Conversely, a pullback under Jun 21 low of IDR14,784 would signal topping potential, after the RSI returned from overbought territory in the recent days.

• USD/IDR 1-month NDF last +6 figs at IDR14,851, topside focus falls on Jun 22 high of IDR14,896. Bears keep an eye on Jun 27 low of IDR14,788.
• MYR/IDR last sits at IDR3,372, little changed on the day, still struggling to stage a sustained break above its 100-DMA (IDR3,371). If we close above there, bulls would likely set their sights on the 200-DMA, which intersects at IDR3,392.
• SGD/IDR last seen -17 figs at IDR10,696, holding a familiar range. Participants look for a breakout from that well-defined corridor. A clean break above a cluster of intraday highs located near yesterday's high of IDR10,721 would please bulls, while bears look for a dip through Jun 23 low of IDR10,652.
• Monthly CPI data is up on Friday. Bloomberg consensus looks for a +4.18% Y/Y headline. Bank Indonesia said it expects inflation to print at +0.5% M/M, but didn't provide the estimate for annual price growth.
• Elsewhere, Indonesian President Widodo's trip to Europe is marked by his efforts to address the global food crisis. Jokowi has concluded his visit to the G7 summit in Germany and is heading to Kyiv for a meeting with President Zelensky. He is planning to travel to Moscow afterwards.