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Russia CDS Signal 80% Chance of Default on Ruble Payment Concern

RUSSIA
  • The cost of insuring Russia’s government debt surged on Monday to signal a record 80% probability of default after President Vladimir Putin signed a decree saying Russia will be allowed to repay foreign creditors in rubles.
  • Credit-default swaps insuring $10 million of the government’s bonds for five years were quoted at about $5.8 million upfront and $100,000 annually, according to ICE Data Services
  • That’s up from about $4 million in advance last week
  • Protection sellers have been demanding upfront payment in recent weeks, signaling perceptions that default risk is imminent
  • Investors are concerned that Russia might trigger the contracts if it repays foreign-currency debt in rubles
  • Some of Russia’s international bonds allow repayments in rubles
  • The two dollar bonds with $117 million worth of coupons due on March 16 don’t have that option
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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