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OIL
Russian crude exports to China via the Northern Sea Route rose to a record high in 2023 as Russia has redirected cargoes away from Western refiners according to S&P Global.
- A total of 13 cargoes carrying 10.4mbbls barrels flowed from Arctic and Baltic ports to China in the 2023 summer season compared to 484kbbls in 2022 and 2.2mbbls in 2019. The majority of the 1mb/d seaborne Russian crude exports to China are still shipped via the southern Suez Canal route.
- Costs and unpredictable voyage times are key issues limiting a further expansion of the route with flows only possible in summer when the Arctic ice retreats.
- The voyage times were variable this year but from Primorsk to China averaged 40 days and from Murmansk averaged 27 days compared to 50 days for the traditional southern route.
- Russia this year said it planned to build more than 50 icebreakers and ice-class vessels, ports and terminals and other assets over the next 13 years to develop the route.
- Planned oil supplies from Vostok of around 30m mt/year of crude in 2024 and 100m mt by 2030 could provide an extra supply source for the route.
Source: S&P Global
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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