Russia Counts Votes In Its First Wartime Elections

The Russian Federation held its first wartime elections over the weekend as voters cast their ballots to elect 14 regional governors as well as members of 6 regional legislatures and a number of municipal assemblies.

• Meduza reports that "in all regions that held gubernatorial elections [...] incumbent candidates are leading," citing preliminary results from the Central Election Commission. Independent media outlets reported numerous instances of suspected fraud and harassment of election observers.
• The quiet tone of the campaign reflected tightened censorship regulations and the implementation of other repressive measures, leading independent analysts to expect the polls to be the least competitive in years. Some of the regions are testing novel solutions such as electronic voting and multi-day voting before their nationwide roll-out, planned for before the 2024 presidential election.
• The opposition Team Navalny has limited its "Smart Voting" recommendation (i.e. asking voters to pick names most likely to defeat Kremlin-backed candidates) to Moscow municipal elections. The decision was made on the grounds that the strategy applied nationwide could mean asking voters to pick pro-war candidates. In the capital, non-pro-war candidates are expected to be more competitive than elsewhere.
• A few months back it had been speculated that Russia might want to time its regional elections with annexation referendums in some of the occupied parts of Ukraine. These plans had to be put on hold, with Russian armed forces unable to make sufficient territorial gains and secure the logistics of any such polls.
• The outbreak of Russia's war against Ukraine on February 24 has been paralleled by stepped-up repression at home, further skewing the playing field in favour of regime-backed candidates. While Kremlin-backed forces are expected to win by landslide, the degree to which Russians still can/are willing to cast protest votes (even if only at the local level) will be under the microscope.