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RUSSIA: Key Rate Seen Unchanged at 18%, Q2 GDP Data on Docket

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  • There is no clear consensus over the outcome of this month’s CBR meeting. While rising inflation expectations could warrant an additional 100bp hike, economic activity data has shown signs of slowing down, which should provide the central bank room to keep its key rate unchanged at 18% instead.
  • The rate decision itself is at 11:30BST/13:30 local time, followed by a press conference by Governor Nabiullina at 13:00BST/15:00 local. See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.
  • GDP data for Q2 is also on the docket today, with figures set for release at 17:00BST/19:00 local. As per the median estimate of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, growth likely remain unchanged at +4.0% Y/Y.
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  • There is no clear consensus over the outcome of this month’s CBR meeting. While rising inflation expectations could warrant an additional 100bp hike, economic activity data has shown signs of slowing down, which should provide the central bank room to keep its key rate unchanged at 18% instead.
  • The rate decision itself is at 11:30BST/13:30 local time, followed by a press conference by Governor Nabiullina at 13:00BST/15:00 local. See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.
  • GDP data for Q2 is also on the docket today, with figures set for release at 17:00BST/19:00 local. As per the median estimate of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, growth likely remain unchanged at +4.0% Y/Y.