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Russia Takes a Step Closer to Default as West Boosts Sanctions Measures

RUSSIA
  • Russia took a step closer to default yesterday as the US banned repayments using its reserves in an effort to squeeze the CBR to use its remaining buffers to service debt.
  • Russia’s reserves have already plummeted by over $40bn defending the currency thus far and could dip further if it chooses to avoid technical default.
  • USD/RUB BGN showed little response to the latest wave of sanctions from the West yesterday targeting tech (€10bn), banking transactions (23% of total Russian market share), coal (€4bn) and other import bans (€5.5bn).
  • Markets continue to forecast a deep recession for Russia in 2022 (-7-10%), complimented with soaring inflation.
  • The cross closed little changed on the day, holding a narrowing 3.35% range with the March lows at 81.05 still intact.
  • The MOEX fell -4.48% on the day, similar to the RTS $ Index. Markets will eye weekly inflation figures after last week’s metrics registered a smaller rise at 1.16% w/w for a cumulative 8.91% increase YTD.

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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