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Russian Diesel Exports Could Fall by 200kb/d in 2023: ESAI Energy

DIESEL

Russian diesel exports could fall by 200kb/d this year to 575kb/d according to consultancy ESAI Energy.

  • The decline is driven by the EU’s ban and the G7 price cap which came into effect on 5 Feb.
  • Supply to Turkey is expected to double to 220k b/d as Russia will be able to divert only half of the 400kb/d exports to Europe.
  • Other buyers of Russia diesel include Morocco, South Korea, Singapore and Brazil.
  • Re-exports through Middle East will be limited due to low diesel refining costs in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait.
  • Russian crude throughput is forecast to fall by over 500kb/d to 4.9mb/d.

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