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OIL: Russian Oil Flows Wouldn't Rebound Following Ceasefire

OIL
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Russian oil flows wouldn’t rebound following a ceasefire, according to a JPMorgan note cited by Bloomberg. 

  • “The assumption of a ceasefire leading to a resumption of large scale-flows of Russian oil is misplaced,” analysts led by Natasha Kaneva say in report.
  • “Russia is cutting production as part of its commitment to the OPEC+ alliance, rather than in response to US or European sanctions”.
  • Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts expect latest sanctions to have a “limited impact” on Russia beyond a shift in trade flows.
  • JPMorgan still sees Brent averaging $73/bbl in 2025, with prices ending the year in the “mid-$60s”, Bloomberg reports.
  • In 2026, the bank sees “another year of large surpluses, driving Brent prices below $60 by year-end”, with an annual average of $61/bbl. 
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Russian oil flows wouldn’t rebound following a ceasefire, according to a JPMorgan note cited by Bloomberg. 

  • “The assumption of a ceasefire leading to a resumption of large scale-flows of Russian oil is misplaced,” analysts led by Natasha Kaneva say in report.
  • “Russia is cutting production as part of its commitment to the OPEC+ alliance, rather than in response to US or European sanctions”.
  • Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts expect latest sanctions to have a “limited impact” on Russia beyond a shift in trade flows.
  • JPMorgan still sees Brent averaging $73/bbl in 2025, with prices ending the year in the “mid-$60s”, Bloomberg reports.
  • In 2026, the bank sees “another year of large surpluses, driving Brent prices below $60 by year-end”, with an annual average of $61/bbl.