Free Trial

OIL: Russian Oil Flows Wouldn't Rebound Following Ceasefire

OIL

Russian oil flows wouldn’t rebound following a ceasefire, according to a JPMorgan note cited by Bloomberg. 

  • “The assumption of a ceasefire leading to a resumption of large scale-flows of Russian oil is misplaced,” analysts led by Natasha Kaneva say in report.
  • “Russia is cutting production as part of its commitment to the OPEC+ alliance, rather than in response to US or European sanctions”.
  • Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts expect latest sanctions to have a “limited impact” on Russia beyond a shift in trade flows.
  • JPMorgan still sees Brent averaging $73/bbl in 2025, with prices ending the year in the “mid-$60s”, Bloomberg reports.
  • In 2026, the bank sees “another year of large surpluses, driving Brent prices below $60 by year-end”, with an annual average of $61/bbl. 
121 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Russian oil flows wouldn’t rebound following a ceasefire, according to a JPMorgan note cited by Bloomberg. 

  • “The assumption of a ceasefire leading to a resumption of large scale-flows of Russian oil is misplaced,” analysts led by Natasha Kaneva say in report.
  • “Russia is cutting production as part of its commitment to the OPEC+ alliance, rather than in response to US or European sanctions”.
  • Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts expect latest sanctions to have a “limited impact” on Russia beyond a shift in trade flows.
  • JPMorgan still sees Brent averaging $73/bbl in 2025, with prices ending the year in the “mid-$60s”, Bloomberg reports.
  • In 2026, the bank sees “another year of large surpluses, driving Brent prices below $60 by year-end”, with an annual average of $61/bbl.