Russian Piped Gas to EU Expected to Fall 45% in 2022: IEA

Russia is expected to meet 25% of the EU’s gas demand this year according to the IEA today in its quarterly gas market report, the lowest in two decades.

• The IEA said that EU imports of Russian pipeline gas were set to decline by over 45% this year to below 80 Bcm, assuming current flow patterns remain unchanged.
• Over the medium term, the IEA said Russian gas was set to cover 20% of EU gas demand by 2025, with a total halt in Russian imports possible by 2027.
• In order to offset the lost Russian flows, the EU has pledged to increase LNG imports significantly.
• The IEA also warned that global gas markets could remain tight for a prolonged period of time as LNG production capacity additions slow over the next three years. "This raises the risk of prolonged tight market conditions. While there has been a recent surge in LNG investment decisions, the resulting infrastructure will not be operational until after 2025," the IEA said.
• "A complete cut of Russian gas flows cannot be excluded," the IEA said, a move that would through Europe into energy turmoil.