Russian Seaborne Oil Exports Fell to 11-Months Low in August

Russian seaborne oil exports fell to an 11-month low in August, with crude oil and oil exports falling to 5.27mbpd, as heavy refining maintenance hit oil product exports, and output cut pledges and Black Sea tensions continued to limit crude flows according to S&P tanker tracking data.

• Crude and products exports last month fell 650kbpd below pre-war levels.
• Russian seaborne crude shipments averaged 3mbpd in August, little changed on the month, but about 800kbpd lower compared with the April–May average, CAS data showed.
• Russia's oil product exports fell to a 10-month low of 2.27mbpd, down from a post-war high of 3mbpd in March.
• The export slump since May also comes as Moscow pledged to cut its crude oil output by 500kbpd since March and crude oil exports by 500kbpd in August and by 300kbpd in Sept-Dec.
• Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights assume that Russian crude oil production will remain at around 9.4-9.5mbpd through 2024.
• Spot prices for Russia's key Urals export crude grade have been trading above the G7's $60/b price cap since 11 July. Urals crude delivered to India's west coast priced against Forward Dated Brent narrowed to a $5.65/b discount 23 August. Urals bought on an FOB basis at the Baltic port of Primorsk was assessed by Platts at $74.69/b on 1 September, as its discount to Dated Brent more than halved since the start of the year to around $15/b.
• However, tighter enforcement of the price caps is seen as unlikely for now, with global crude prices pushing toward year highs of $90/b amid a looming supply shortfall later this year.
• The August fall in product exports, however, comes amid reduced Russian domestic refining capacity due to scheduled plant maintenance. Refinery downtime in Russia increased by 310kbpd in the week ended 25 August to 1.06mbpd and is expected to have remained around the same level during the final week of August.