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Rutte On The Ropes - MNI Political Risk Analysis

NETHERLANDS

MNI's Political Risk team has just published an article examining the complex but important scandal embroiling Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte that could claim the long-serving national leader's job. The main takeaways and a link to the full article are attached below:

Just two weeks after seemingly securing a record fourth term in office, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte narrowly avoided losing a vote of no confidence on Thursday 1 April. However, the scandal that has embroiled the PM is likely to result in a significantly dragged-out period of coalition building, the potential for Rutte to be forced from office, or even snap elections to be called.


Main Takeaways
  • The prospect of a swift re-formation of the previous Dutch government has been scuppered by the scandal. Should a coalition be possible, it will likely take some months to be put together given the large number of parties in parliament and the damage done to Rutte's reputation.
  • Prime Minister Mark Rutte could be forced from his position as head of the VVD, the largest party in parliament. This could allow the previous government to re-form, but without Rutte at its head (in office since 2010) the nature and governing style of this administration would be unclear for some time.
  • While a snap election is not the preferred option for most of the major parties amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, there is the prospect they may be required before year-end should no coalition government (or minority government) be possible.
Chart 1. Netherlands House of Representatives - Forming A Government Without Rutte's VVD, Far-Left Or Far-Right A Difficult Task

Source: Tweede Kamer, MNI

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