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JET FUEL: SAF Outlook Mixed for 2025: Platts

JET FUEL
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The outlook for SAF in 2025 remains uncertain, with mixed signals from governments affecting investment, Platts said.

  • The new 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit marks a crucial period for the aviation industry, presenting both opportunities and challenges.
  • The expiration of the 40B program and lack of clear guidelines may deter investors from committing to SAF production. The 40B tax credit (2023-2024) applies to both domestic and imported fuels, while the 45Z tax credit (2025-2027) is limited to domestic fuels.
  • Experts also remain sceptical about SAF's future under Trump's presidency.
  • China's removal of the 13% export tax rebate on used cooking oil (UCO) will also impact the US SAF market, increasing competition for UCO feedstocks.
  • US SAF imports surged in 2024 to 1.178m bbl by end-November, compared to 170k bbl across 2023., 86% came from Neste's Singapore refinery.
  • However, 2024 SAF production fell short of the expected 1.5m mt, reaching only 1 million mt, IATA said. 

 

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The outlook for SAF in 2025 remains uncertain, with mixed signals from governments affecting investment, Platts said.

  • The new 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit marks a crucial period for the aviation industry, presenting both opportunities and challenges.
  • The expiration of the 40B program and lack of clear guidelines may deter investors from committing to SAF production. The 40B tax credit (2023-2024) applies to both domestic and imported fuels, while the 45Z tax credit (2025-2027) is limited to domestic fuels.
  • Experts also remain sceptical about SAF's future under Trump's presidency.
  • China's removal of the 13% export tax rebate on used cooking oil (UCO) will also impact the US SAF market, increasing competition for UCO feedstocks.
  • US SAF imports surged in 2024 to 1.178m bbl by end-November, compared to 170k bbl across 2023., 86% came from Neste's Singapore refinery.
  • However, 2024 SAF production fell short of the expected 1.5m mt, reaching only 1 million mt, IATA said. 

 

Keep reading...Show less