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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
JET FUEL
IATA forecasts that air travel demand will double from 2019 levels by 2040, but the trajectory of SAF uptake may impact the outlook for conventional jet fuel consumption.
- Platts estimates that jet fuel demand will peak in 2035 at 7.8m b/d, at which point SAF will be 11% of total aviation fuel consumption.
- SAF could constitute 36% of aviation fuels by 2050, Platts added.
- One of the key issues will be whether supply can match demand for SAF.
- BNEF said SAF capacity is on track to hit 0.42m b/d by 2030, although demand could start to exceed supply from 2029, pushing up prices for an already more expensive fuel.
- The price of SAF relative to jet fuel may be a key factor in how quickly airlines take up SAF, although further government mandates and subsidies will be critical.
- In the US, SAF supply hit a fresh record in Q2, up 75% on Q1, BNEF said, citing EPA data.
- This brings total US SAF supply in H1 to 51.5m gallons, almost double the volume for the whole of 2023.
- The steep trajectory is set to persist, as BNEF expects 400m gallons per year of new capacity to come online in 2024 in the US.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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