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US TSYS SUMMARY
US TSYS SUMMARY: Safe haven assets including Treasuries remain favoured amid
continued coronavirus concerns. The Tsy curve continues to flatten post-FOMC and
stocks remain pressured (S&P futures off 0.8%).
- Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) up 9.5/32 at 131-10 (L: 131-00.5 / H: 131-12) on very
solid volumes (580k).
- 2-Yr yield is down 1.4bps at 1.3988%, 5-Yr is down 2.4bps at 1.3815%, 10-Yr is
down 2.7bps at 1.5565%, and 30-Yr is down 1.9bps at 2.0204%. 3M10Y inverted,
last down -3.166bps at -1.184 (L: -1.959).
- Our FOMC Review just went out to subscribers; no changes to sell-side views on
Fed cuts, but our PINCH model shows rising implied odds of easing: 50bps in cuts
are now fully priced by April 2021, with the first cut priced no later than
September 2020 (vs November/December 2020 previously).
- Immediate global market focus is on the Bank of England decision at 0700ET at
which a cut could well be coming (a market mover either way given split opinions
on the outcome), then the first reading of Q4 US GDP out at 0830ET.

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