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Safe Havens Underperform, A$ Rises On Crosses Post RBA Hold

FOREX

The main focus today has been on FX weakness in safe havens yen and CHF. The BBDXY USD index sits marginally higher at 1247, up 0.1%.

  • USD/JPY rallied from early lows of 143.63 to 146.36, as regional equities rose and US yields firmed. Some comments from the Fed's Daly around not reading too much into Friday's labour market report likely aided US yields at the margin (we are +4-5.5bps firmer across the benchmarks).
  • We last tracked near 145.20, still 0.70% weaker in yen terms for the session. CHF is down around 0.35%, last 0.8550.
  • Japan June wages data was stronger than expected (real wages back into positive territory for the first time in 27 months) and the authorities expect the positive trends to continue.
  • Japan equities have rebounded 8-9%, not offsetting yesterday's falls. The BOJ MOF and FSA will get together in a little under an hour to discuss recent volatility.
  • AUD/USD is holding near 06500, with limited post RBA gains, but is outperforming on crosses. AUD/NZD was last 1.0970, fresh multi session highs. AUD/JPY last near 94.60, still off earlier highs of 95.50, but up for the session.
  • The RBA left rates on hold as widely expected, but left generally hawkish language around the rate outlook (nothing ruled in or out, will be vigilant to upside inflation risks).
  • NZD/USD sits 0.20% lower, last near 0.5930.
  • Later US June trade data, German June factory orders and euro area June retail sales print.

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