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SAGBs Tread Water Ahead of Today's Budget Speech, Focus on Fiscal Consolidation

SOUTH AFRICA
  • SAGBs open a fraction lower this morning, having slipped into the red in yesterday’s session as risk aversion over the Ukraine crisis kept risk flows on the backfoot.
  • 10-30Y yields rose +5.2-6.7bp with the 15Y most offered. Today’s focus is on the Budget speech, with the brighter fiscal outlook having supported LT yields against rising UST yields since the MTBPS in November.
  • Signs of continued fiscal consolidation, tight purse strings on SOE allocations & wage agreements, reduced issuance and no tax rises will be construed as positive, while the real kicker will be concrete roadmaps on growth-inducing energy sector and labour market reforms.
  • However, a lack of clarity on reforms and signs of higher social spending will add to scepticism over SA’s ability to credibly remove itself from its low-growth trap.
  • 30Y key support stands at 10.20, with 10.00 below, while 10Y support stands at 9.50 with the 9.30-9.40 zone below.

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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