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Santander See Scope For BCCh To Maintain 50bp Easing Pace

CHILE
  • Santander point out that mining explained almost all of the 0.3% m/m decline in economic activity in April, due to the fall in copper production. Ex-mining, activity was flat, while in annual terms the economy benefited from helpful calendar effects due to the earlier fall of Easter.
  • Overall, though, they continue to see a recovery in the economy driven by the greater dynamism of domestic demand, a pick-up in mining and a favourable external sector, despite some persistent fragilities in the construction and commerce sectors. Santander continue to estimate economic growth of 2.8% this year, with an increase of around 2.5% for May.
  • Given this level of activity, together with signs of more limited inflationary pressures, Santander expect May CPI to rise by 0.2% m/m later this week (in line with consensus). Although a moderation in the pace of interest rate cuts is feasible, Santander believe the conditions also exist to maintain the pace at 50bp on June 18, particularly if CLP continues to appreciate.
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