MNI BRIEF: EU Will Prioritise Local Firms In Rearming - VDL

MNI: Canada CPI Rise Is Broader Than End Of Sales Tax Break

test headline

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, March 18

MNI BRIEF: China Electricity Demand Up In February

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Industrial Value Added Up In Jan Feb

MNI: US FEB INDUSTRIAL PROD +0.7%; CAP UTIL 78.2%

MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +5.5% V YR AGO MO

CANADA FEB CPI 2.6% FROM JAN 1.9% AS FEDERAL TAX BREAK ENDS

GERMANY: Handelsblatt Report on Lingering Uncertainties Ahead of Bundestag

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

ECB VIEW: Santander - Those Looking To Remove Restrictive In Minority For Now

ECB VIEW
BundesbankCentral Bank NewsFixed Income BulletsCEEMEAEurozoneGermanyBulletMarketsEuropean Central BankForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Santander see another 25bp cut as a done deal at the ECB decision on Thursday, with a pause “completely out of the question”.
  • “We do not anticipate significant changes in the ECB’s macro projections, with risks to both internal demand and exports still on the downside for growth. The new numbers will probably ease the ECB’s concerns about the possibility of labour costs being an upside risk for inflation”.
  • “With official rates assessed as remaining “restrictive” after the January meeting and the overall picture for growth and inflation evolving as expected since December, the case for a continuation of the gradual convergence to neutral remains and another 25bp cut is very likely to be delivered next week – as widely anticipated by the market.”
  • “Time to remove the “restrictive” assessment from the statement? Probably not yet, but very likely to be discussed. Schnabel is already building up a case to argue that monetary policy is no longer restrictive in the Eurozone. And other hawks such as Holzmann and Nagel will probably back her up in this regard. However, we think this group is, at least for now, a minority within the Council.”
  • “We continue to expect the ECB to cut by 25bp at each of the coming meetings, with 2.00% still looking the most likely level for the terminal rate. But with the market already pricing in this scenario and risks in our view looking slightly more biased towards a hawkish surprise than the other way around, we prefer to temporarily reduce front-end longs ahead of the ECB meeting.”
255 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Santander see another 25bp cut as a done deal at the ECB decision on Thursday, with a pause “completely out of the question”.
  • “We do not anticipate significant changes in the ECB’s macro projections, with risks to both internal demand and exports still on the downside for growth. The new numbers will probably ease the ECB’s concerns about the possibility of labour costs being an upside risk for inflation”.
  • “With official rates assessed as remaining “restrictive” after the January meeting and the overall picture for growth and inflation evolving as expected since December, the case for a continuation of the gradual convergence to neutral remains and another 25bp cut is very likely to be delivered next week – as widely anticipated by the market.”
  • “Time to remove the “restrictive” assessment from the statement? Probably not yet, but very likely to be discussed. Schnabel is already building up a case to argue that monetary policy is no longer restrictive in the Eurozone. And other hawks such as Holzmann and Nagel will probably back her up in this regard. However, we think this group is, at least for now, a minority within the Council.”
  • “We continue to expect the ECB to cut by 25bp at each of the coming meetings, with 2.00% still looking the most likely level for the terminal rate. But with the market already pricing in this scenario and risks in our view looking slightly more biased towards a hawkish surprise than the other way around, we prefer to temporarily reduce front-end longs ahead of the ECB meeting.”