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Saudi May Struggle to Maintain Low August Output Without Tightening Market

OIL

Saudi Arabia has drastically cut crude/condensate exports in August by more than 1mbpd vs July, and by 1.6mbd vs the average over 2022 and H1 2023 according to Vortexa.

  • Exports from Russia in July and August are down by just 150kbd relative to January-June figures when adjusting for the seasonal patterns suggesting actual cuts well below the pledged 500kbpd for August and 300kbpd from September.
  • All other OPEC+ countries are showing export levels easing by less than 500kbd compared to April, the month ahead of voluntary announced cuts by eight countries.
  • All five Arab grades have seen a drastic decline in volumes at sea over the month of August, by 45mbbl (nearly 1.5mbpd) showing Saudi Arabia has exported less crude but more has been arriving at clients’ ports.
  • Saudi crude-at-sea is already at the low end of the seasonal range. The country may struggle to maintain the August lows to year end without tightening the market drastically and pushing prices far beyond the $100/bbl according to Vortexa.


Source: Vortexa

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