MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Annual Inflation Rises To 4.87% In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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SCANDIS: 1-Month NOKSEK Vols Bid As August Rate Decisions Come Into View

SCANDIS

The August Norges Bank and Riksbank policy decisions are now captured in 1-month NOKSEK vols, which approach 7 points (versus a mid-July trough of ~5.5 points).

  • That sees a 1-month ATM NOKSEK straddle require a ~150 pip swing to breakeven upon expiry.
  • NOK has been the worst G10 performer against the EUR, USD and SEK over the last month, with moves likely exacerbated by limited summer liquidity and near-term volatility in global oil markets.
  • A 25bps Riksbank cut on August 20 is the most likely scenario given recent data and Executive Board/rate path guidance.
  • On the other hand, Norges Bank will need to balance recent inflation data with aforementioned NOK weakness in deciding whether to maintain its hawkish guidance for no rate cuts in 2024.
CEEMEASwedenBulletNorwayGlobalForeign Exchange BulletsRegion
CEEMEASwedenBulletNorwayGlobalForeign Exchange BulletsRegion

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