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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
Speaking at the traditional wide-ranging press conference held before the summer break, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said that he intends to 'run as chancellor to become chancellor again' at the next general election. The comment came in response to a question on whether Scholz would 'follow [US President Joe] Biden's example' in stepping down from the leadership ahead of the end of his term.
- The next election is not due until October 2025 at the latest, but even at this early stage opinion polling shows the tripartite 'traffic light' coalition will need a significant boost in support if it is to retain power in its current formation. Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) sit in third place around 15% support, with the junior coalition partner environmentalist Greens in foruth with ~10-12%, and pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) sitting right on the 5% support threshold required to win seats in the Bundestag.
- The record-low support for the SPD in the European Parliament election, and the strength of the political right - the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leading polls and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in second - have seen some calls for a change in leadership to rejuvinate the gov'ts prospects.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: INSA, Forsa, YouGov, Infratest dimap, FGW, Verian, Allensbach, GMS, MNI
- Separately, Scholz says that "I think it is very possible that Kamala Harris will win the election, but the American voters will decide." Adds that he has met Harris several times, calls her a 'competent and experienced politician'.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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