GERMANY
Speaking at the traditional wide-ranging press conference held before the summer break, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said that he intends to 'run as chancellor to become chancellor again' at the next general election. The comment came in response to a question on whether Scholz would 'follow [US President Joe] Biden's example' in stepping down from the leadership ahead of the end of his term.
- The next election is not due until October 2025 at the latest, but even at this early stage opinion polling shows the tripartite 'traffic light' coalition will need a significant boost in support if it is to retain power in its current formation. Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) sit in third place around 15% support, with the junior coalition partner environmentalist Greens in foruth with ~10-12%, and pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) sitting right on the 5% support threshold required to win seats in the Bundestag.
- The record-low support for the SPD in the European Parliament election, and the strength of the political right - the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leading polls and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in second - have seen some calls for a change in leadership to rejuvinate the gov'ts prospects.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: INSA, Forsa, YouGov, Infratest dimap, FGW, Verian, Allensbach, GMS, MNI
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