Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- The Canadian labour force survey for January marks the second notable macro release since the Jan 24 BoC decision.
- Consensus sees employment rising a seasonally adjusted 15k in January after 6.8k in Dec (we already know it was revised up from 0.1k).
- Recall that the revisions released on Jan 29 smoothed out some of the volatility in the full-time/part-time split, and with a greater contribution from full-time (over Q4, full-time jobs added 51k of the 55k overall vs 33k of 43k beforehand). That said, the Dec split was -8k full-time, +14k part-time.
- Back to January, there is additional uncertainty owing to a similar seasonal pattern in the US with jobs typically shed in January. Prior to the pandemic, there was an average -255k January job loss through 2015-19, a figure that blew out to -500k in 2021-22 before a historically small -125k in Jan 2023 as firms were reluctant to let staff go amidst acute labour shortages.
- Continued tightness in the US labour market and similar seasonality likely played a large role in the upside surprise in last week’s seasonally adjusted NFP increase in January. Canada, however, has seen clearly greater moderation in its labour market, at least judging by the unemployment rate.
- We therefore see scope for an upside surprise for seasonally adjusted employment growth in January, albeit to a relatively less extent than US payrolls, but are cognizant of just how volatile the Canadian labour data can be so will put more focus on trends, and view any surprises in tandem with the unemployment rate.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok