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Scotia Ahead Of CPI: Eyeing Solid Rebound In Core Measures

CANADA
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  • Scotia: Headline to increase 0.7% M/M (NSA) and 3.0% Y/Y in March.
  • “I lean toward a solid risk of a rebound in the trimmed mean and weighted median measures […] What drove a fair portion of the sudden soft patch over January and February had much less to do with the lagging effects of rate hikes and much more to do with a highly unusual panoply of distorting effects reflecting inventory management, weather, and bullying by the Federal government.”
  • “This won’t be a factor in March’s reading on Tuesday, but I’m figuring that the increased carbon taxes during April will easily add 0.2–0.4 percentage points m/m to April CPI including direct and indirect effects. This is beyond whatever we’ll be tracking by then.”
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  • Scotia: Headline to increase 0.7% M/M (NSA) and 3.0% Y/Y in March.
  • “I lean toward a solid risk of a rebound in the trimmed mean and weighted median measures […] What drove a fair portion of the sudden soft patch over January and February had much less to do with the lagging effects of rate hikes and much more to do with a highly unusual panoply of distorting effects reflecting inventory management, weather, and bullying by the Federal government.”
  • “This won’t be a factor in March’s reading on Tuesday, but I’m figuring that the increased carbon taxes during April will easily add 0.2–0.4 percentage points m/m to April CPI including direct and indirect effects. This is beyond whatever we’ll be tracking by then.”