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Scotia Notes Relatively Tighter Labour Market Ahead Of Jobs Report

CANADA

Scotia estimate ongoing resilience in the job market with another 25k employment gain and a fairly stable u/e rate of 5% as labour force expansion offsets job growth.

  • Using US measurement principles that would equate to about a 4.2% u/e rate versus the 3.7% in the US. Given confidence bands around the noise it’s feasible that the rates are virtually identical in the two countries, yet Canada’s natural rate of unemployment is commonly estimated to be higher than the US.
  • As such, there is a tighter labour market north of the border than to the south at least as measured by unemployment rate spreads to OECD natural rate estimates.
  • On wage growth, Y/Y wage gains have been steady at around 5%, but the M/M gains have stalled out of late after applying standard seasonal adjustments.
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