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Scotia On Low End Of Core CPI Expectations; ANZ In Line

US DATA

Scotiabank sees a below-consensus set of May CPI prints Thursday, with +0.4% M/M for headline, and just 0.2% M/M (joint-lowest in the BBG survey).

  • While noting that "conservative assumptions were used which may suggest there is more risk of a higher rather than a lower set of readings including on core inflation", Scotia looks for a breather from supply chain pass-through effects on consumer prices.
  • Either way, Scotia sees it as unclear whether markets "will just shrug" over core pushing above 3.25% and headline 4.5-5.0% - some of the current inflation is transitory, and some isn't, they argue.

ANZ sees an 0.5% core rise, with headline of 0.5%, with supply chain issues helping drive prices higher.

  • ANZ: "Pricing pressures are likely to be solid again in leisure and hospitality activities like air fares and lodging away from home."
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