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Scotiabank economists on............>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: Scotiabank economists on Wednesday's retail sales will be
"relying upon more difficult to observe momentum in core sales (ex-autos and
gas) to drive any gains." Scotiabank notes "vehicle sales were little changed
(-0.6% m/m) and regular unleaded gasoline prices were up by only about 1% m/m.
Therefore, headline sales that include autos and gasoline won't get any
significantly greater lift than whatever happens to core sales." Meanwhile,
potential "weaker weather effect" may be supportive of core sales. "Recall that
the weakest spending categories in January were ones that are most likely to be
influenced by weather and included visiting auto dealerships, heading out to
eating/drinking establishments and loading up on building materials. A weather
effect conundrum, however, is the fact that February was warmer than the average
month of February, but also wetter across the population-dense Eastern and
Midwest states."

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