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Scotiabank: Eyeing Payroll Growth of 205k But Particular Uncertainty

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Scotia see payroll growth of 205k, close to consensus of 200k, but note that no-one should have much confidence in their estimates this month with the report coming as early as possible in the month with few other indicators already known plus the usual factor of the 90% confidence interval being +/- 120k
  • Layoff announcements for both tech and non-tech alike may impact payrolls, picking up between a rough proxy for nonfarm reference periods. It may dampen the jobs tally somewhat, but probably not by enough to carry the day relative to other drivers like hiring appetite.
  • The rise in initial jobless claims has been material but fairly modest. This could also involve lags between layoffs and filing claims for unemployment benefits.
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