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Scotiabank Forecasting 50BP BanRep Rate Cut Next Week

COLOMBIA
  • Scotiabank are siding with market pricing in forecasting a 50bp rate cut to 11.75% at BanRep’s April meeting, probably with a split vote. They expect the central bank to accelerate the easing cycle towards the end of the year, ending at 8.25%.
  • The board’s main concern remains the risk premiums that could be reflected in the exchange rate and delay the convergence of inflation to the target. However, economic activity and the external balance show worrying signs in some relevant sectors.
  • Recent data on economic activity and imports indicate that investment remains low, marking a discouraging start to the year, especially in sectors related to capital goods and those related to the construction sector.
  • In addition, imports related to durable and semi-durable goods continue to be in the red due to lower household demand, reflecting the impact of high interest rates on the economy and inflation that is not anchored to its target.
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