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Scotiabank Maintain 5.0% Year-End Inflation Forecast

PERU
  • Looking ahead, Scotiabank expect inflation to break lower in March, mainly because of a high base of comparison (inflation for March 2022 was unusually high: 1.48% m/m), so it is likely to be close to 8%, or even below the figure.
  • Scotiabank maintain their inflation forecast of 5.0% at end-2023. February’s inflation and their forecast for March increase the probability that the BCRP will continue its pause in the interest rate hiking cycle.
  • Their current base scenario considers it has already reached its terminal rate at 7.75% and that it will remain at that level for most of the year.

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