MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, July 29

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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY301.57 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

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Scotiabank Note Stronger Growth Trend, Expect 50BP BanRep Hike

COLOMBIA
  • On Monday, the statistical agency (DANE) published the main GDP proxy, which shows that economic activity expanded by 8.6% y/y, above the Bloomberg consensus of 7.5% y/y. The sectors that contributed to the positive annual reading in August were the secondary sector and services, but there was also a significant recovery in the primary sector.
  • The August ISE reading suggests that economic growth continues, albeit with moderations in services sectors such as commerce and hotels, which is healthy for overall economic growth. The recovery of the construction sector is expected to be strong for the remainder of the year, especially in civil works. The services sector remains strong, but to a lesser extent, and Scotiabank expect this trend to continue as inflationary pressures persist, the cost of consumer credit rises, and statistical base effects fade.
  • That said, Scotiabank now expect 7.6% growth by 2022. In terms of interest rates, Scotia are expecting an increase of 50bps at the October meeting but with an upward bias of 100bps given that activity continues to show a solid performance.
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