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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, December 12
Scotiabank Note Stronger Growth Trend, Expect 50BP BanRep Hike
- On Monday, the statistical agency (DANE) published the main GDP proxy, which shows that economic activity expanded by 8.6% y/y, above the Bloomberg consensus of 7.5% y/y. The sectors that contributed to the positive annual reading in August were the secondary sector and services, but there was also a significant recovery in the primary sector.
- The August ISE reading suggests that economic growth continues, albeit with moderations in services sectors such as commerce and hotels, which is healthy for overall economic growth. The recovery of the construction sector is expected to be strong for the remainder of the year, especially in civil works. The services sector remains strong, but to a lesser extent, and Scotiabank expect this trend to continue as inflationary pressures persist, the cost of consumer credit rises, and statistical base effects fade.
- That said, Scotiabank now expect 7.6% growth by 2022. In terms of interest rates, Scotia are expecting an increase of 50bps at the October meeting but with an upward bias of 100bps given that activity continues to show a solid performance.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.