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Scotiabank on Activity Data & BCCH

CHILE
  • Scotiabank noted the smaller-than-expected, though still large, decline in economic activity in November of 2.5% y/y, with mining activity rising 1.34% versus a 0.96% drop in non-mining output. On a month-over-month basis, activity declined by 0.8% after a 0.5% expansion in October (in very choppy data).
  • The fading impact of pension withdrawals coupled with highly-restrictive policy rates have clearly stunted the Chilean economy that will likely record a second consecutive quarterly contraction in Q4-22.
  • Chile’s INE publishes December inflation data on Friday that should maintain the downward trend from the August high, but the deceleration looks far from quick enough to see the BCCh reduce its policy rate at its January meeting (Jan 26).
  • Note that only three of 57 traders polled in the latest BCCh survey expected a rate reduction this month.
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