TRUDEAU SAYS IT LOOKS LIKE BOC WILL BE LOWERING RATE AGAIN

MNI BRIEF: Canada Commits To Just One Of Three Fiscal Anchors

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Scotiabank on BanRep: Lack Of Consensus To Continue

COLOMBIA
  • The majority of analysts expect the Board to increase the policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, which is aligned with Scotiabank's own projection.
  • Since the last meeting, macro data for August showed a reduction in the core inflation print as well as inflation expectations remaining anchored. On the economic growth side, however, August's economic activity showed that recovery still faces challenges, leading them to think that the Board is not getting significant hawkish data to more evidently accelerate its hiking cycle.
  • Key points to have in mind ahead of Friday's BanRep vote:
  • The Board will have updated forecasts from the Central Bank's staff for GDP, inflation, FX, implicit policy rate, and the balance of payments, which will have important information on how BanRep's staff is thinking about the normalization of the policy rate. Scotiabank expect the staff to signal a steeper hiking cycle, pointing to a higher terminal rate, due to the output gap closing at a faster pace, and in the same vein inflation forecast would be revised to the upside due to the indexation effect ahead of 2022.
  • Scotiabank expect the hiking cycle to continue at a 25 bps pace for now. That said, breakeven inflation deserves monitoring, although recent increases are likely due to market dynamics and not necessarily reflecting structurally higher inflation expectations. Therefore, they affirm their expectation of policy rate closing 2021 at 2.50% and 4.50% by the end of 2022.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.