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Scotiabank on February Inflation Data Due Wednesday

PERU
  • Scotiabank expect inflation in February to be close to 0.48% m/m, higher than that of January (0.23% m/m), resulting in a y/y rate close to the peak of 8.8% posted in June 2022.
  • According to Scotiabank’s monitoring of key prices, they see a moderation in the prices of perishable foods, in line with the reduced intensity of social unrest seen in February. Lower inflation would have been a clear result of this were it not for poultry prices, with an increase of more than 10% on average and a high weighting in the basic food basket.
  • Likewise, Scotiabank observed increases in local fuel prices, which offset the reduction in electricity rates. Core inflation is seen around 0.3% m/m, translating into a stable 5.8% y/y gain.
  • The BCRP brought forward the pause in its tightening cycle in February and, due to its concern about a weaker economic performance, Scotiabank anticipate that it will hold its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its meeting on March 9.
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