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Scotiabank Raise 2024 Peru GDP Growth Forecast To 2.7%

PERU
  • As concerns over a strong El Nino event subside, Scotiabank have today revised up their 2024 Peru GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.7%. Besides the lower probability of a disruptive El Nino event, Scotiabank also note the mildly better than expected global backdrop and more favourable base comparison as reasons for the upgrade. They expect GDP to have fallen by 0.5% last year in Peru, weaker than their initial -0.2% estimate.
  • By industry, they expect a stronger performance from the fishing sector this year, while manufacturing will also bounce from a weak 2023. Base effects should also support a partial rebound in construction, while consumption will benefit from lower inflation this year, which will lift real wages.
  • On the other hand, they expect mining growth to be more moderate in 2024 (+2.5% vs. +8.1% prior) as activity in this sector was boosted last year by the coming onstream of the huge Quellaveco copper mine. The main uncertainty to their forecast comes from the domestic political backdrop and business confidence, which they do not expect to improve ahead of the elections.
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