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Scotiabank Revises 2023 Inflation Forecast Lower To 3.6%

PERU
  • Despite Scotiabank expecting November inflation to come in around 0.15% m/m, recovering from the October drop (-0.32% m/m), they note the inflation trend in annual terms will continue to decline, from 4.3% to 4.0%.
  • Scotiabank’s forecast of 4.6% for year-end CPI assumed a strong El Niño scenario, as well as a higher oil price due to the potential impacts of the Middle East conflict. However, although a moderate/strong El Niño scenario continues to be dominant, the sea temperature anomaly is less intense than expected for this time of year and therefore has less impact on food prices.
  • On the other hand, the probability that the conflict in the Middle East will escalate shows now lower. These developments lead Scotiabank to reduce their inflation forecast for this year from 4.6% to 3.6%.
  • The lower level of CPI to begin 2024 leads Scotiabank to also revise their inflation forecast for next year from 4.0% to 3.5%.

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