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Scotiabank Say CPI Set To Keep BCRP At The Ready

PERU
  • Scotiabank say CPI data for Lima out this week will reflect the impact of protests on supply chains and food prices. There is a decent chance that these upside pressures will see inflation climb past what Scotiabank thought had been the cycle peak in June 2022, when it printed 8.8% y/y.
  • Overall, inflation remains stubbornly high in the country—even abstracting from the impact of the protests—which is set to keep the BCRP at the ready in case there is no clear sign of decelerating price gains. Their team in Peru forecasts headline inflation at 9.2% y/y and 0.76% m/m.
  • This is ahead of the surveyed median estimate on Bloomberg which forecasts a 0.51% monthly increase and the annual rate increasing to 8.97%.
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