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Scotiabank See Cautious Optimism That Inflection Point May Be Building

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  • Scotiabank, historically at the more hawkish end of the analyst spectrum, saw the simplest measure of core inflation continuing to decelerate, driving “cautious optimism that an inflection point may be building”.
  • It could “support a further downshifting in the pace of rate hikes in Dec and more cautious forward guidance toward a coming pause” when factoring in Gov. Macklem choosing to downplay wage growth.
  • Traditional core CPI ex-food and energy was up only 0.2% m/m SA, the lightest since Nov’21. The annualized rate of 2.5% m/m SAAR converts to 3.7% on a 3mma basis which isn’t exactly a light trend, but continues the deceleration since May.
  • “The usual caution applies in that more data is required, but we’re on the right path with greater evidence now than at any other point in quite some time”.
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  • Scotiabank, historically at the more hawkish end of the analyst spectrum, saw the simplest measure of core inflation continuing to decelerate, driving “cautious optimism that an inflection point may be building”.
  • It could “support a further downshifting in the pace of rate hikes in Dec and more cautious forward guidance toward a coming pause” when factoring in Gov. Macklem choosing to downplay wage growth.
  • Traditional core CPI ex-food and energy was up only 0.2% m/m SA, the lightest since Nov’21. The annualized rate of 2.5% m/m SAAR converts to 3.7% on a 3mma basis which isn’t exactly a light trend, but continues the deceleration since May.
  • “The usual caution applies in that more data is required, but we’re on the right path with greater evidence now than at any other point in quite some time”.