SEA Outperforms NEA Ahead Of LNY Break

USD/Asia pairs are mixed today. NEA FX is trading with a slightly weaker bias, but remains within recent ranges. USD/CNH found selling interest above 6.7900. SEA FX has done better led by THB and MYR. A reminder that LNY next week leaves a number of markets closed (China for the whole week, Hong Kong for first 3 days, Singapore the first 2).

• USD/CNH has continued to trade with a firmer bias, despite rising local equities onshore. We got close to Thursday highs, with the pair touching 6.7930/35, before selling interest emerged. We last tracked close to 6.7820. The CNY fixing bias remained close to neutral.
• 1 month USD/KRW has tracked recent ranges, with early weakness sub 1230 finding USD support. The better equity tone has helped curb upside though, with some spill over from higher USD/JPY levels. The 1 month NDF last tracked near 1235.
• USD/INR has opened dealing ~0.2% lower, last printing 81.20/25. The pair has breached lows seen earlier in the month, and is again dealing below its 100-day EMA (81.70). International flows from Global Funds, which bought a net ~$80M of Indian bonds and ~$365M of Indian equities, in the first 3 days of this week may have weighed on the pair. In the equity space, this is helping to stabilize net outflows from early in the year (we are still close to -$1.5bn YTD).
• USD/THB is back below 33.00, +0.5% for the session in baht terms and the best performer in EM Asia FX so far today. The pair touched 32.80 earlier, but we have edged back to 32.84 now. Baht bulls will be eyeing a break of Jan 16 lows close to 32.70, while on the topside, resistance is evident on moves up to the 33.10/33.20 region. The descending 20-day EMA comes in at 33.75. Note the main event risk next week is BoT's decision on Wednesday, with a +25bps hike expected. BoT commentary around baht will also be monitored for any sign of concern around baht strength.
• MYR has shrugged off the surprise BNM on hold decision from late yesterday. USD/MYR is down a further 0.35% to 4.2925 today. This is fresh lows in the pair back to April 2022. The formation of the so-called death cross, aiding sentiment from a technical standpoint. Dec CPI came in a touch weaker than expected at 3.8%, versus 3.9% forecast and 4.0% prior.