Seasonally Adjusted CPI Series: Flat Core Goods, Higher Services

The Bundesbank's calculation of March's calendar and seasonally-adjusted equivalent to today's flash CPI readings shows a tickup in overall core and services inflation on a sequential monthly basis, but a significant pullback in core goods.

• Core CPI rose to 0.4% M/M rounded from 0.3% prior (to 0.35% from 0.26% on an unrounded basis). That drove the slight acceleration in overall CPI, which came in at 0.3% M/M, vs 0.2% prior: food prices rose by 0.1% (-1.2% prior) and energy fell for the first time in 3 months at -0.3% (0.5% prior).
• By comparison, NSA CPI came in at 0.4% (unchanged from 0.4% in February).
• Services printed 0.4% M/M (0.446% unrounded so nearly 0.5%), unchanged from March's rounded figure (though up from 0.358% unrounded). This marks the strongest 3-month run (averaging 0.448% M/M) since November 2022, marking a significant re-acceleration since late last year. Services prices have risen 1.0% over the past 3 months.
• However, core goods (ex-energy) pulled back sharply, to 0.0% from 0.4% prior - the lowest since August 2021.
• This was effectively a reversal of February's dynamics in which there was some sequential progress on services disinflation after a very strong January print, but core inflation ticked up overall on very strong core goods inflation.
• At first glance, the Bundesbank's series suggests that service inflation momentum remains strong, mirroring the Y/Y reading of 3.7% (vs 3.4% prior). That said, the latest data point, while both calendar and seasonally adjusted, should be taken with some caution as the Easter calendar effect may have been sizeable (and was seen impacting services prices in particular to the upside).