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SEB: Return to November view

BOE
  • “To some extent the overall situation today is rather similar to the situation in November, but our interpretations is that past two months CPI outturns was simply too high, and in particular too broad based to stay passive.”
  • “Return to our view going into the November meeting that the Bank Rate will be raised again, but by 25bps to 0.50% at the next MPC meeting on 3 February when a new Monetary Policy Report will be published. We also keep the rate hikes for May and September 2022.”
  • SEB then looks for further 25bp hikes in February 2023 and September 2023 to bring Bank Rate to 1.25% by the end of 2023.
  • “With a Bank Rate at 1.25% in December 2023 and an inflation rate at 2.5%, the real Bank Rate will be minus 1.25%. Hence, we have attached a clear upside risk to our Bank of England Bank Rate forecast and keep an eye on inflation expectations as the key trigger for changes in policies.”
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