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Second Quarter GDP Eyed Following BCRA Rate Hike

ARGENTINA
  • The focus this week will be on tomorrow's second quarter GDP data.
  • As a reminder the BCRA raised the benchmark Leliq rate by 550 basis points to 75% in nominal terms last Thursday. The rate is now nearly twice as high as its level of 38% at the start of the year.
    • The bank’s board of directors also added in the statement that it intends to reduce the level of short-term debt held by the central bank next year, but didn’t provide more specifics.
  • The Argentine government projects prices rising 60% next year, a much lower rate than private economists estimates of over 100%, according to Economy Ministry officials who asked not to be named to discuss the 2023 budget proposal before it’s published.
  • The budget also forecasts 2% economic growth and an official exchange rate at 269 per dollar by the of 2023. Economists surveyed by the central bank see the official rate at 298 per dollar over that time.
  • The key fiscal deficit projection in the draft -- 1.9% of gross domestic product -- coincides with targets already established in the IMF Agreement.
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