Second-Round Presidential Vote Likely Needed One Month From Poll

The first round of Indonesia’s presidential election will be held in four weeks on February 14. Voters will also choose the members for the House of Representatives, the Senate and local legislative councils. While Defence Minister Prabowo looks likely to win the first round, polls are pointing to a run-off which would be held on June 26 and could be difficult for him to win.

• The Indikator Politik poll from January 6 showed Prabowo continuing to lead the other two candidates on 46.9% but still below the 50% required to win in the first round. The opposition’s Anies is in second place with 23.2% and the ruling party’s Ganjar has 22.2% support. With the election almost a month away, the undecided component is still around 8%.
• The popular incumbent President Widodo has supported Prabowo instead of his party’s candidate Ganjar as his son Gibran received constitutional dispensation on the age requirement to run as Prabowo’s VP.
• It would be difficult for Anies and Ganjar to form a coalition to challenge Prabowo’s lead as the former’s party includes Islamists and the latter’s is secular. They have been joining in recent debates though to attack Prabowo’s track record as defence minister and his time in the army.