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SECURITY: Biden Does Not Support Attack On Iran's Nuclear Sites

SECURITY
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Reuters carrying comments from US President Joe Biden on the situation in the Middle East. Biden says, "he does not support an attack on Iran's nuclear sites," and notes that the US and G7 are working on a joint statement on Iran.

  • Biden add that "there's going to be some sanctions imposed on Iran," and says he, "will be talking to [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu soon."
  • US sanctions are likely to hit Iran's oil sector, representing roughly 70% of government revenue. Time notesthat Iran's oil production has doubled, "from less than 2 million barrels per day in 2019 to nearly 4 million barrels per day now," providing the treasury with a USD$100 billion revenue boost.
  • While sanctions are already in place, the Biden administration has been relaxed about enforcement out of a fear of driving up global oil prices. Enforcement could feasibly be ramped up to levels seen during the Trump administration, reducing Iranian oil revenue by half by around USD$50 billion per year.
  • Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a few moments ago: “We don't seek war but if Israel acts against us we will respond.” Pezeshkian's comments appear consistent with a view that Iran's ballistic missile attack was primarily designed to re-establish a deterrent in light of Israel's operation to degrade Iranian proxies, rather than an attempt to expand the conflict.
  • White it is highly unlikely Israel will refrain from a response, the US may hope that promising stricter sanctions can prevent an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, oil facilities, and refineries on Khark Island.
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Reuters carrying comments from US President Joe Biden on the situation in the Middle East. Biden says, "he does not support an attack on Iran's nuclear sites," and notes that the US and G7 are working on a joint statement on Iran.

  • Biden add that "there's going to be some sanctions imposed on Iran," and says he, "will be talking to [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu soon."
  • US sanctions are likely to hit Iran's oil sector, representing roughly 70% of government revenue. Time notesthat Iran's oil production has doubled, "from less than 2 million barrels per day in 2019 to nearly 4 million barrels per day now," providing the treasury with a USD$100 billion revenue boost.
  • While sanctions are already in place, the Biden administration has been relaxed about enforcement out of a fear of driving up global oil prices. Enforcement could feasibly be ramped up to levels seen during the Trump administration, reducing Iranian oil revenue by half by around USD$50 billion per year.
  • Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a few moments ago: “We don't seek war but if Israel acts against us we will respond.” Pezeshkian's comments appear consistent with a view that Iran's ballistic missile attack was primarily designed to re-establish a deterrent in light of Israel's operation to degrade Iranian proxies, rather than an attempt to expand the conflict.
  • White it is highly unlikely Israel will refrain from a response, the US may hope that promising stricter sanctions can prevent an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, oil facilities, and refineries on Khark Island.