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Sell In May and Go Away: The Dry Summer Period

EQUITIES
  • Historically, the 'Sell in May and Go Away' has been a popular Wall Street adage that refers to a period between May and October when the market on average underperforms the prior six months.
  • The chart below shows the equity curve of the performance of US equities (since January 1928) during the Summer period, which runs from May to October, and the Winter period, which runs from November to April.
  • The divergence is striking; while the SP500 has averaged annual returns of 5.2% during the Winter period for a volatility of 12.1%, US stocks 'only' averaged a 2.2% annual return during the Summer period (annualized return of the SP500 during the whole periods is 7.6% for a Sharpe ratio of 0.41).
  • The difference is even bigger for Japanese and European equities, which both average negative annualized returns during the Summer period (the times series are much shorter for both markets).
  • Will the rise in global liquidity offset the traditional slower momentum in equities this summer?

Source: Bloomberg

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