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Sell Off Continues With Data Deluge Ahead

US TSYS
  • A beat in Eurozone CPI inflation (partly implied by the earlier French release) gave Treasuries a reason to continue the sell-off from the previous two days.
  • The curve flattens modestly as front-end yields rise faster in response to lifted Fed hike expectations, back at levels seen only fleetingly before Mester (’22 voter) poured cold water on talk of 75bp hikes.
  • 2YY +6.3bps at 2.680%, 5YY +5.6bps at 2.895%, 10YY +4.3bps at 2.866% and 30YY +3.3bps at 2.926%.
  • TYM2 sits 2+ ticks lower at 119-08+ having pulled off Wednesday’s high of 120-18+ but on low volumes throughout the European morning. The trend outlook remains bearish as it next eyes the bear trigger of 118-08 (Apr 22 low).
  • Data: The Employment Cost Index for Q1 plus PCE deflator and incomes/spending for March all hit at 0830ET, followed by the MNI Chicago PMI for April at 0945ET and then the finalised U.Mich consumer survey for April at 1000ET.
  • Consensus has another strong print for the ECI (+1.1% Q/Q after +1.0% in Q4) although the core PCE for March could see some downward revisions.



UST 2Y and 10Y yields plus 2s10s (charting mid price)Source: Bloomberg

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