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Sell side expectations for today's decision

BOE
  • All analysts expect Bank Rate on hold in May with analysts equally split between another 8-1 vote (Dhingra the sole dissenter) or 7-2 (with Ramsden joining Dhingra).
  • In terms of CPI forecasts, all analysts who explicitly published a forecast look for a 2-year projection of 2.0% or below: 5/9 analysts look for 2.0% at the 2-year horizon with 3/9 looking for 1.9% and Morgan Stanley looking for 1.8%. The 2-year horizon was previously 2.3% (rolling forward a quarter to Q2-26 it was previously 2.2%).
  • At the three-year horizon, all analysts are looking for a lower number than the 1.9% seen in February: 2/9 look for 1.8%, 5/9 analysts look for 1.7%, while NatWest Markets look for 1.5% and Morgan Stanley 1.4%.
  • In terms of guidance, expectations are generally for tweaks rather than wholesale changes.

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