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Sell-side reactions to the first round Presidential Election

FRANCE
  • Berenberg: "We cut the probability that Macron will prevail to 60% from 75% and raise the risk that Le Pen may win to 30% from 10% previously."
  • ING: "The second round remains very uncertain. In all likelihood, Macron should win but with a smaller margin of victory. And a Le Pen presidency can't be excluded."
  • JP Morgan: "Le Pen unlikely to win in our view: second round polls gap is significant, voters’ mobilization is decent and first round candidates overall called to vote for Macron (or not to vote for Le Pen)"
  • Natixis: "To the question can MLP win, the answer is yes. What is the probability? A little less than 50% but not much than that... Much will depend on the participation, a little on the debate between two rounds which can only be better for MLP and the behavior of voters having voted for losing candidate in the first Round"
  • UniCredit: "While we think the chances of Ms. Le Pen winning are low, and lower than implied by polls, the voting intentions gap between the two candidates is so narrow (6-8pp on average in favor of Mr. Macron that a victory of Ms. Le Pen cannot be ruled out. If anything, momentum has been more favorable to Ms. Le Pen than to Mr. Macron over the past few weeks"
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