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Sell-side Views on Tomorrow’s Inflation Data (Est: +22.3% y/y)

HUNGARY
  • Goldman Sachs forecast inflation to decrease to +22.3% y/y. The main source of disinflation will be food inflation, they say, with the decline supported by both favourable base effects and weaker sequential momentum. Declining oil prices should also contribute to lower inflation in Hungary in the months ahead, to which the Hungarian CPI basket is relatively more geared towards.
  • UniCredit estimate that inflation fell to 22.3% y/y at the end of May, mainly due to very large base effects in food prices. They also expect the prices of core goods and services to have risen less than they did in May 2022 as energy costs have fallen. Going forward, the inflation outlook is obscured by the recently announced mandatory price caps, which are likely to lead to more volatility in food prices.
  • They expect inflation to reach single digits by December, with disinflation slowing thereafter due to tight labor market conditions and larger supply shocks than in the rest of the region. Inflation is seen remaining above 6% next year. Furthermore, UniCredit expect rate cuts to continue this year, with the overnight deposit rate and the policy rate being unified at 12% by the end of the year.
  • ING expect the month-on-month headline inflation to come in at around 0.1% mainly on easing price pressures in food, fuel and durables. Services inflation, however, will remain strong they say, thus core inflation on a monthly basis will stay high around 0.8%. But thanks to base effects, the headline and core readings will flirt with 22% and 23% levels, respectively, they say.
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