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Sell-Side Views on Yesterday's CPI Print

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Goldman Sachs: Food inflation increased by less than we had anticipated and maintain forecast for a gradual further decline in inflation in the coming months.
  • Investec: Rise in core indicates a broadening in inflationary pressures, and SARB will worry that high inflation can become entrenched. SARB likely to deliver a 100bp increase instead of the 75bp rise it has put through at its last few meetings.
  • JP Morgan: Better food inflation outlook leads us to expect an inflation average of 6.8% this year (previously 6.9%), but the report is unlikely to significantly impact the SARB’s tightening pace in the near term. 75bps in November remains somewhat more likely than 100bps.
  • Natwest: Reinforces view that SA does not suffer from the same inflation problem as RoW. Depressed demand means energy and food price pressures are not feeding through to broader inflation. Rates markets believe SARB will hike 100bps more than the Fed. This isn't justified by either inflation or growth. We see an opportunity to receive SA rates.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
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